Saturday, May 29, 2010

Currency should be based on banks not governments

The European Central bank should base its currency on banks and not governments. The ECB should now look for major banks in each European country to back and support in order for the Euro to remain a viable currency in each country. Then they support those banks right now if necessary, but set up higher capital requirements for all banks that use its Euro going foward. And if all banks in a particular country are not even worth helping, then they must let those go.

There is no reason for the ECB to care if a government defaults nor should they worry about employment or any other issue other than the stability of its monetary value against gold, its currencies wide acceptance, and the health of the banks that hold accounts in its currency. Concerns regarding employment, health of governments, and even price stability (other than against gold) are all ploys by governments to increase their power and steal from the people.

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

china is gonan get screwed out of its savings

I heard a report on the news that actually said, "Market rallies as China says it is 'All in' regarding European Bonds." Actually all China said is that they are not planning to sell their bonds. All in would imply they are going to bet all their money on Europe.

The bottomline is that China is screwed. You may have heard the saying: If I owe you $5000, I have a problem, but if I owe you 5 million, you have a problem.
That is the story with china. Europe owes about 750 billion and the US owes 1.5 Trillion. China will be lucky if they get 50% of that back.

The question is, do they realize they are getting screwed and secretly trying to prepare to get out this mess with as little loss as possible? Or are they as they seem in the news reports, actually believing that promises from Western governments are worth their weight in gold when they are actually only worth their weight in paper?

Saturday, May 22, 2010

European governments will Default

The big question on every investors mind is will the western governments print their way out of their debt crisis or will they default. If they can inflate their way out, the politicians and bankers who got us into this mess stay in power and can pretend nothing is their fault. If they default, the politicians and bankers lose their job and many will go to jail, and most importantly responsible profitable efficient organizations, individuals, and banks that remain solvent will rise in power.

Regarding investments, knowing this outcome is extremely important, because if we have inflation, you want to own commodities, stocks, and homes as they will hold value against a declining currency and there is no reason to pay off debts because they will get inflated away. On the other hand if we have default, then you only want to own what you need, invest in solid investments, and limit your debt.

Here is my prediction on what will happen:
Europe will default. The main reason is that the German’s understand too much about the evils of printing money from their nazi days. And they stand to benefit as the last country standing. Also, where as the US government in 2008 constantly over funded any threat, the European response has been to do as little as possible as late as possible. The markets smell blood and there just doesn’t seem to be a enough money or will for the Europeans to bailout all the governments suffering in this debt crisis.
Once this default occurs, BUY Europe and own the euro.

The idea that bailouts save a currency is absurd and counterintuitive. A currency’s value is nothing more than the amount of currency outstanding vs the amount of economic value it covers. Thus if an economy declines and they print money, the currency declines in relative value. If they don’t print and the economy declines, the currency could still decline as the economy declines, but by less than if they printed. But by not printing the currency should hold its value against gold. Then, holding value against gold will gain trust and that trust will further increase its value.